【全球智库观察·第45期】布鲁金斯学会:中美之间的对外投资缘何如此之少?

文章发布时间:2015/5/26 17:48:08



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编者语:

作为世界上两个最大的经济体和接收对外投资最多的两个国家,中美之间的对外投资出乎意料地少。本期【全球智库观察】专栏文章分析了中美之间对外投资存在的问题,认为二者间投资少的原因可以归纳为两个方面。一是美国对外投资对产权和法治尤为敏感。比如,美国在对外投资中重视保护知识产权,而从全球治理指标来看,中国的产权保护和法治环境不佳,且每况愈下。二是尽管近年来中国对外投资结构不断多样化,地产、食品和银行业等领域在美表现突出,中国对美国的对外直接投资呈逐年上涨趋势,但是美国外国投资委员会的国家安全审查将许多中国投资者拒之门外。目前,中美两国已达成共识,将共同商议双边投资协议,若能解决中美对彼此对外直接投资的关键问题,将为两国开启大规模投资的希望之门。敬请阅读。

文/David Dollar(布鲁金斯学会高级研究员)

作为世界上两个最大的经济体和接收对外投资最多的两个国家,中美之间的对外投资却出乎意料地少。

从全球范围来看,美国对外投资存量占到20%,中国占10%。然而,纵览中美两国之间的直接对外投资,数字却要小得多。根据数据显示,美国对中投资达500亿美元,仅占其海外投资的1%多一点,而全球对中国的对外投资却高达10%。另一方面,中国的对外投资情况则较为复杂,其中有一多半都流向了香港,进而再流向世界其他国家。抛开流经香港的投资不谈,中国对美国的对外投资仅占其存量的8%,相较其他国家的比例要低很多。那么,缘何世界上第一、第二大经济体之间的投资如此之少?

美国对外投资对产权和法治尤为敏感,包括知识产权的保护。通常,美国的公司在科技领域处于领先地位,因此对商标和专利的保护便尤为重视。从全球治理指标来看,中国的产权和法治情况令人堪忧,且这种情形每况愈下。此外,中国在制造业等特定领域欢迎对外投资,而在金融服务、采矿、通信和传媒等行业却对其进行限制。根据经合组织的一项排名,相较于印度或巴西等新兴市场,中国对对外投资的态度更为谨慎和保守,尤其是在那些关乎美国经济重要组成部分的领域。

由于中国对美国对外直接投资总量相对较小,吸引其进行投资的初始动力便是获取自然资源。而在亚洲、拉丁美洲及非洲的发展中国家中,这样的机会明显要多于美国。

资料来源:Blanka Kalinova,Angel Palerm,and Stephen Thomsen,2010,“OECD’s FDI Restrictiveness Index:2010 Update”

近年来,随着中国对外投资结构不断多样化,地产、食品和银行业等领域在美表现较为突出。尽管中国对美国的对外直接投资呈逐年上涨趋势,美国外国投资委员会的国家安全审查却令不少中国投资者败兴而归。虽然美国外国投资委员会审核的投资事务仅占很小一部分,不少备受瞩目的中国并购项目却因国家安全的原因而被拒之门外。

中美两国已达成共识,将共同商议双边投资协议。若该协议能解决中美对彼此对外直接投资的关键问题,将为两国开启大规模投资的希望之门。对美国公司而言,进入更多领域、更好地保护知识产权至关重要。而中国公司则能够在一个政治影响更为弱化的环境中进行投资。在中国共产党的三中全会上,中国领导人表达了向外国投资开启更多领域的意愿。成功的双边投资协议将帮助中美实现必要的改革,并将两国的经济关系引领向更深层次的发展。

【附英文原文】

There is surprisingly little direct investment between the United States and China—surprising given that these are the two largest economies in the world and the two largest worldwide recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI). Globally, about 20 percent of the stock of FDI is in the United States, and about 10 percent in China. The numbers are much smaller, however, when we look at direct investment between the two. U.S. statistics show about $50 billion of investment in China, or a little more than 1 percent of U.S. overseas investment. The world puts 10 percent of its direct investment in China, but the United States, only one-tenth that amount. In the other direction, analyzing China’s outward investment is complicated by the fact that more than half the reported outflow goes to Hong Kong, from which much of it probably flows on to other locations. Putting aside that flow through Hong Kong, about 8 percent of the stock of Chinese investment abroad is in the United States—again, a small share compared to global investors. In a new working paper, I analyze why there is so little direct investment between these two biggest economies.

U.S. outward investment is particularly sensitive to property rights and the rule of law, including intellectual property rights protection. U.S. firms are often technology leaders so that protection of trademarks and patents is particularly important. According to the World Governance Indicators, China has poor property rights and rule of law, and the situation has gotten modestly worse over time. Also, China encourages FDI in some sectors (e.g., manufacturing), while prohibiting it in others (financial services, mining, telecom, and media, to name a few). According to an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ranking, China is more closed to FDI than other emerging markets such as India or Brazil, and much more closed than the United States (see figure below). China is particularly closed in sectors that are important parts of the U.S. economy.

Concerning the relatively small amount of Chinese direct investment in the United States: the initial impetus for China’s outward investment was to secure natural resources. There were more opportunities for this in developing countries of Asia, Latin America, and Africa, than in the United States. In recent years, however, Chinese outward investment has diversified and a larger share is coming to the United States in sectors such as real estate, food, and banking. While Chinese investment to the United States is increasing fairly rapidly, the national security reviews of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) have soured many Chinese investors on the U.S. market. While CFIUS only reviews a small number of transactions each year, it has turned down a number of high-profile Chinese acquisitions on national security grounds.

Source: Blanka Kalinova, Angel Palerm, and Stephen Thomsen, 2010, “OECD’s FDI Restrictiveness Index: 2010 Update”.

The United States and China have agreed to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty (BIT). This could open the doors to large amounts of investment in both directions if it addresses key issues. For U.S. firms, access to more sectors and better protection of intellectual property rights are crucial. Chinese firms seek a less politicized environment in which to invest. In its Third Plenum resolution, the Communist Party leadership indicated its intention to open more sectors to foreign investment and competition. A BIT could help lock in these necessary reforms and lead to a deepening of economic ties.(完)

【智库简介】

布鲁金斯学会 Brookings Institution

布鲁金斯学会成立于1916年,总部位于华盛顿特区,是美国最具影响力的智库之一,主要研究社会科学尤其是经济与发展、都市政策、外交政策及全球经济发展等议题。在《2014年全球智库年度报告》(The Global Go To Think Tanks 2014)中,布鲁金斯学会在全球(含美国)150大智库中列第1名。网址:http://www.brookings.edu/

文章来源:瞭望智库网站、布鲁金斯学会网站 2015年2月26日(原标题为《Why so little investment between the United States and China?》,本文仅代表作者观点)

本篇编辑:朱茜月;张祎;岳圣元


俄美外长通电话商讨打击恐怖主义问题资料图:俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫中新网11月5日电 据俄罗斯卫星网5日报道,俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫和美国国务卿克里通过电话就“统一打击恐怖主义立场”进行了讨论。俄罗斯外交部称,这一通话是由美国倡议举行的,此话题将在下一次维也纳会谈中得以讨论。消息称,10月30日,各方为调解叙利亚危机举行维也纳多边会谈并达成了协议,为了执行这一协议,俄外长和美国务卿继续讨论了为解决叙

俄美外长通电话商讨打击恐怖主义问题资料图:俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫中新网11月5日电 据俄罗斯卫星网5日报道,俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫和美国国务卿克里通过电话就“统一打击恐怖主义立场”进行了讨论。俄罗斯外交部称,这一通话是由美国倡议举行的,此话题将在下一次维也纳会谈中得以讨论。消息称,10月30日,各方为调解叙利亚危机举行维也纳多边会谈并达成了协议,为了执行这一协议,俄外长和美国务卿继续讨论了为解决叙



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